Trump and the Future of Travel
Donald J Trump is now over 2 weeks into his new role as the 45th President of the United States, and the way we travel could be poised to change.
Trump and the Future of Travel
Donald J Trump is now over 2 weeks into his new role as the
45th President of the United States, and the way we travel could be poised to
change.
On the campaign trail, Trump did not address tourism
specifically, but he did signal a backward trend from globalism. Cuba, which was recently opened to Americans,
could not possibly be returned to its former status. He has also enacted his immigration ban from
7 Muslim majority countries while continuing to promise that a wall will be
built along the Mexican and US border.
Airports, along with the rest of the USA’s infrastructure, could be
rebuilt.
It hasn’t been a month yet, but here are some early thoughts
about how Trump’s policies, decisions, and presidency may affect American
nationals traveling abroad, relations and access to Cuba, airfare prices, and
foreign travel to the US.
The
Cost of International Travel for Americans
When the economy is good, Americans engage in more international
travel. So, a weaker dollar could hurt
outbound tourism. As a discretionary
product, travel is one of the first places people look to save. However, if high earners see tax cuts under
Trump, an uptick in travel could be experienced.
Flight prices will be an interesting to keep an eye on as well. Delta, United, and American Airlines are the
United States legacy airlines, and they don’t want any more competition – they want
US travelers to purchase tickets from them (and pay more).
Towards that goal, they have been fighting
hard to limit market access by Etihad, Emirates, and Qatar, which would breed
competition and in turn push the airlines to up the ante and either improve
service or lower their prices. Both
would be amazing for travelers!
Trump has been viewed as “protectionist”, and this could be helpful for
the legacy airlines hoping to convert on the protectionist mindset. If this attitude prevails, options will
continue to be limited and prices will continue to be high.
In the end, money will be the most important factor when deciding to
travel or not. Additionally, it will
depend on how Americans believe they will be perceived abroad. They will also ask themselves if they think
it’s safe to travel or whether they think they will be mistreated because of
anti-American sentiment that may be present.
Travel to the United States
Cuba just barely opened itself up again to the US, and it is
already on many must-visit lists for Americans.
There are cruise ships sailing there now, more hotels being built, and
improvements to this “Pearl of the Caribbean.”
However, Trump has also stated that if there is not more political
freedom afforded on the island, he may reverse the Executive Order that Obama
and Raul Castro made to begin repairing relations between the two nations.
Trump could alter this newly opened relationship with Cuba
by way of his own Executive Order. The
uncertainty this creates delays potential investment in Cuba and also
tourism. This doesn’t mean Trump would
necessary back away from international trade with Cuba because four years from
now, he would love to see a Trump Hotel in Havana and beyond.
New and Improved Infrastructure in America
Trump was on the campaign trail promoting the policies of
improving and rebuilding American infrastructure – including highways, bridges,
tunnels, airports, and hospitals. He
plans to put millions to work in the effort to rebuild the infrastructure,
which would also help the economy grow.
If Trump is able to spend close to the $1 trillion dollars on
infrastructure, it would lead to new roads and airports. But these are changes we won’t see in the
near term.
Trump remains an unknown, but as a long time member of the
travel industry, he could come up with ways to have the United States be a more
welcoming and appealing destination. On
the other hand, he could also be a very unfriendly president to travel. He could be at either end of the
spectrum. One thing is for sure though –
he will make sure his presence is known.